I know enough to know I don't believe anybody, or any poll, in this election cycle. And I know I suck at predicting future events. And here is something else I know:
I do know the election outcome will be one of these four*:
1) Trump wins and America's decline is halted for at least four years,That's it.
2) Hillary buys a win with 'Free Stuff',
3) Hillary wins by cheating, or
4) Both #2 and #3.
As for others and their predictions, there are so many closet NeverTrumpers out there that I question any Republican's prediction of Trump's defeat. This video was posted at HotAir along with some polling data and Allahpundit's analysis. (HotAir is a monetized GOPe'ish site I stopped visiting many years ago.) Are the writers at HotAir NeverTrumpers and/or BitterCruzingers? Is Dana? I don't know. I consider all of them members of the old media.
Some more perspective:
Four million Republicans stayed home in 2012. Had they voted, Romney would have won. I don't see that in 2016. Do you? Also, having attended four Trump rallies this year, I can also say, with confidence, that there will be new Republican voters this year. Will it be enough? And I suspect Trump will do something W, McCain and Romney couldn't: get more than 5% of the black vote. Maybe even 6%.
This has been a fun year. I've enjoyed the optimism after these horrible Obama years. Whether grounded in reality or not, I will continue to remain optimistic through Nov. 8th. It has been good for the soul.
2.5 months away from the only poll that matters. We'll see.
* assuming Hillary is alive on November 8th.