Saturday, February 06, 2016

Economy Update

As I've mentioned in the recent past, I think the business media has taken an active role is advising consumers rather than just reporting the financial news.  I saw this in the dot-com bubble and fell for some of the 'it is just a correction' BS.  I think this bubble is far larger, and I feel sorry for those who are making investment decisions based on Internet headlines like the one above.

Years ago an asshole called me "Chicken Little," so the headline above triggered a more emotional response from me than it probably intended.  It was a cheap shot then, as it is today.  MarketWatch's intention was to trigger a decision among the non-professional stock trader: don't sell, or we'll call you names. 

And the second headline, above, about the current employment numbers is laughable.  I could not have taken these screenshots mid-day if I were employed.  (I'm one of the 94 million currently unemployed and not represented in the official employment statistics.)

Here is the DOW chart for the past month showing the most recent 'correction.'  One might ask "Who is selling?"

I don't claim to know what is going on or where it will go.  I mainly read the pros who generally lean to the pessimistic side, like Jim Rickards, Ann Barnhardt, and Karl Denninger.  They predicted many of the financial events that are happening today.  (They have also missed some as well.)  I have stopped paying attention to the fake professionals like Peter Schiff, as I explained in a video from last year.

MarketWatch has been consistent in their financial advice: Stay In!  Karl Denninger has been consistent in the other direction and posted two day's ago: Get Out!  Ann Barnhardt has a great video series that requires your critical thought and attention, which she links to in her latest blog post, Personal Update and Negative Interest Rates: Highway to a Cashless, Statist Hell.

The screenshots above are from yesterday, Friday February 5, 2016, at MarketWatch.

Tuesday, February 02, 2016

Tuesday Web Gems

What I found while browsing at a cigar bar and waiting for Comrade Mikhail:


 Comrade Diogenes


And from the EnglishRussia post, Free and Happy Soviet People. Or, perhaps, a future picture of Iowa Democrat Party voters working the Ethanol fields?

Black and white photography does bring out the proletarian struggle, no?

She Wore Red

I was there.  Comrade Forney was there.  And Bill Clinton was there.  That was it for straight white males in a crowd of 700, plus media and secret service.

The MSM is reporting she was surrounded by her most avid followers.  The MSM is wrong.  Again.

I have video and photos that I'll share once I have an opportunity to put it all into a video.
UPDATED 2.2 7pm:

As I fled Des Moines after taking the photo above, I couldn't get the image out of my head.  Then it hit me. 
The looks above are the same looks I see when I pass a car with an Obama or Bernie sticker.

Bitter.  Angry.  Resentful.  Entitled.  Impatient.  Depressed. Unhappy.

Monday, February 01, 2016

The Trump Phenomenon among Conservatives

As some of the Cruz supporters continue to scream "he's not a conservative" and "you're really f**king stupid" to the poor Trump supporters, it is refreshing to see that these attacks have not moved the polls as intended.

Rush Limbaugh has the best analysis of why Trump is leading.  Do not listen if you are not tolerant of views other than your own...  Redistributed from Doug's site.

The attacks these past two weeks remind me of the Ron Paul(bots) of previous elections, and I wonder if they are the majority of the vocal name-callers and are giving the Cruz supporters a bad name.  The Paul-bots, if you don't remember, would swarm anyone online, or any poll online.  No intellectual discussions, just swarm and overwhelm any discussion that either ignored Ron Paul or put him in a bad light.  I'm seeing the same behavior with the Cruz supporters now, and while I know it is just a few, it is getting old real fast.  If you are a Cruz supporter, by all means engage.  But tell everyone something positive about Ted Cruz.  Persuade.  Don't insult.  You can use the format of my Trump post as an outline.

I'm keeping a mental tally of those people who are against Trump (which seems to mean pro-Cruz).  In several weeks either they will be celebrating as Cruz takes the nomination, or they will be bitter  for the next 10 months, ready to gloat if the GOP nominee fails to win the general election. Perhaps they will also be quick with the "I told you so" when (not if) President Trump does something less-than-conservative.

Here are some of the anti-Trump types:

Rush Limbaugh.  Despite his excellent analysis above and over the past two weeks, it is my guess that Rush is in the bag for Cruz for this reason alone:  Rush says the GOPe hates Cruz more than they hate Trump.  And he never explains why.  I think this is a way to push voters to Cruz without coming out and saying why.  Rush knows this is an anti-establishment election, on both sides, and his saying this with ZERO supporting evidence, tells me he's for Cruz, but not so much he's willing to lose some of his audience.

Mark Levin.

Glenn Beck.


National Review Online.

Rick Perry.

Trevor Loudon.

John Hawkins (RightWingNews).  Here are some of John's tweets between Jan 20-24.  I think these were meant to deceive, distract and  manipulate.  None of his comments were sourced, for example.  I also think they are unbecoming of a leader in the new-media.  I've told him this in my FB replies.
I am not much of a magazine guy, but I did just sign up for a year of National Review Digital as a thank you for their anti-Trump edition

Do you really think a guy who tried to use eminent domain to take a widow's home for a LIMO PARKING LOT is really for the little guy? #‎Trump

If Trump's the nominee, Republicans will have to root for Obamacare to stay in place, because his single payer system is even worse.

I disagree with Donald Trump's pro-amnesty stance....

George Bush had better favorable/unfavorable numbers when he left office than Trump does right now.

Just for the record, if Ted Cruz shoots someone, I will no longer support his candidacy...unless it's an establishment guy in a duel #‎cool

People who slime Trump supporters or refer to Trump as a fascist/Hitler deserve to be ignored, disrespected and tuned out by conservatives.

What makes anyone think a flip-flopping moderate like Trump would make deals they'd like better than a country club Republican like Boehner?

Wow, Bloomberg might run? He's a moderate billionaire, can't be bought, speaks his mind & has "New York Values." It's like they're twins!

Donald Trump is so much of a squish that he makes Lindsey Graham look like Rush Limbaugh.

Why don't we draft Warren Buffet as the GOP nominee? He's not conservative, but neither is Trump. He's also richer & less erratic. #‎improve?

If someone tells you that at least Trump keeps his word, it's a sign they don't know that much about him.

Trump never loses! Except for the 4 bankruptcies. And Trump steaks. Trump Vodka. Trump university. The USFL. Trump airlines, etc, etc, etc

If Trump is our nominee, it's an auto-win for the Dems. Obamacare's permanent. Prolly 4 Supreme Court Justices. Executive orders all stand.

I don't ever link or push anything that refers to Trump as a "Hitler" or that trashes his supporters. That's obnoxious.

Shorter Trump: Elect me and I'll be another John Boehner! Wait, what?

You can't stop Trump, but you can contain him. Savage him enough & then he won't have enough support to win when the primary field shrinks.

The RNC was right to pull National Review's debate invite for bombing on Trump. It was still worth it for them to do it.

Trump has never voted in a Republican primary, said W. is the worst POTUS in history & was supporting Democrats & amnesty just 3 years ago.

Why should we be nervous about how a celebrity like Trump would govern? Look how well it worked out with Schwarzenegger & Ventura? Wait...

I'm going to be do everything I can to stop Trump from getting nominated. If he wins, I'll do what I can to help, but it will be hopeless.

Was doing some research & discovered that both Jimmy Carter & Walter Mondale had better favorability ratings than Trump. #‎encouragingnot

Trump ahead in state polls? Important! Polls showing Trump's favorable rating is only 5 points higher than Todd Akin's? #‎lookoverthere

Even though I don't think Trump is the right guy to be the nominee, I'd never question someone's conservative bona fides for supporting him

Why are the polls showing Trump ahead relevant, when the polls showing his 33% favorability rating are treated like they don't matter?
John endorsed Cruz on the 30th.

I offered to partner with John on a comparison between Cruz and Trump on immigration.  You can see his decline here.

The spreadsheet goes unfinished.

Any ideas why he avoided this 5-min chore to help communicate the candidates' position on immigration?

I predicted two weeks ago that Cruz will get the nomination.  The math adds up.  Or, it did.  I now see the possibility of Cruz losing ground and giving the #2 position to Rubio. Here is why:

What I can't predict is how the conservative movement will work together after the childish and rude attacks from the Cruz supporters.  I just hope the Trump supporters continue to ignore the cheap shots.

Seen in Des Moines

Fernando's Mexican restaurant's near hippie-dippy Drake University.

Fernando's bulletin board:

There is nothing I like more with my chips and salsa than a little Internationale:

Related, Drudge links to this Mark Dice video where he poses as a Hillary supporter asking for signatures to support Hillary's choice for Vice President, Karl Marx.  It is as genius as it is disturbing.

GOP Rankings Report - Feb 1

Here is Ushanka's 13th GOP Rankings Report.  No graph this time - I'm having MS Excel difficulties.  Here is the raw data.

The only changes to the data is zero's for all candidates in the Attack column.  Primary season has started today, and attacks on fellow GOP candidates is fair game.  This column was important in the Fall as many conservatives were against internal attacks after 7 years of Obama.  Most GOP candidates were class acts through 2015.  Jeb!, Kasich and Rubio, not so much.  I'll leave this column zero'd out for the remainder of the Reports.

What does this report say?  

That has been a tough question, until recently.  It is an objective bi-weekly report based on  conservative priorities.  This is the 13th report, and it is becoming apparent these rankings will not move too much now.  The candidates' positions are known, and the only reason someone will announce a new policy is out of desperation.

Two Benefits:
1)  We can see that the GOP leaders, Cruz and Trump, are above average in the pack.
2)  We can also see that Trump and Cruz are about equal against my criteria.
Unless you've lived under a rock these past two weeks, you'll know that the Cruz supporters have launched a full offensive against Trump and his supporters in order to stop Trump's momentum and, hopefully, boost Cruz's numbers.  The leading criticism is that Cruz is more conservative than Trump.  This report proves this claim to be wrong, and every Cruz supporter who I've shown it to has retreated post haste. 

I am for Trump:

I posted yesterday that I will be voting for Trump in my primary on Super Tuesday.  I listed the reasons why.  Hopefully my post will serve as a template to others to list the specific reasons they are supporting an other candidate.

My objectivity with this GOP Rankings Report will remain the same.  As you can see by the criteria I use, there is not much room for me to alter the results anyway.

Columns 1 and 3 have been fixed since Report #1.  As of this report, column #2 will be fixed.  Only changes to candidates' domestic and foreign policies will change the scores from this point forward.

Candidate Website Review:


Jeb! has updated his Issues page in time for the Iowa caucus, and it is damn impressive.  Of course, it is Jeb!, so specific conservative promises are far and few between.  His tax plan page, however, is solid.  Why did he wait six months to share his specific tax plan with us?  Is this the desperation that I've been predicting for a month now - that we'll only see good stuff from candidates on their last leg?  The only other reason I can think of is that his website visitors were not a priority for the campaign.  Either reason is reason to put this guy at the bottom of your list.

Huckabee has updated his Issues page, but I could not find anything new in my brief scan.

I Want Trump

Assuming Donald J. Trump is on the Ohio ballot on Super Tuesday, I will vote for him.

I have followed the Buckley Principal in every election since I was 18.  (And I only learned about the Buckley Principal in my late 40's!)   It is simple: vote for the most conservative candidate in the primary, and support the GOP candidate in the general election.

Trump may not be a "conservative," a term that today has as many definitions as there are GOP candidates.  But his platform is the most conservative of them all.  These three specific promises, from a guy who has a lifetime of both setting and achieving stretch goals, is nothing short of spectacular:
1) Build a complete border wall,
2) Stop Muslim immigration until Congress can make rules that will filter the good from the bad, and
3) Eliminate the Dept. of Education.
Don't tell him I said this, but if he were to fail on two of these, he'd still be the most productive Republican president since Reagan destroyed the Soviet Union.

While that is my primary reason, and reason enough, here are some supporting reasons. (I share these to be honest with my fellow comrades, but also as an example of what I'd like to see from supporters of other candidates.)
1) I am angry at what has been done to this country under Pelosi - Reid - Obama - GOPe, and I want as much of it un-done as possible.  I hear that message from Trump.

2) His campaign has been about the future - what he will do.  Others have campaigned on what they have done.  I will support the GOP candidate in November, regardless of who it is.  But in the primary, I pick the candidate with a specific plan, and that is Trump.

3) His is the most conservative platform of the field.  He is not the most conservative candidate, but how come Trump is the only one, or first one, to promise a wall, promise a halt to Islamic immigration, and to delete the Dept. of Education? 
Drudge - January 19

4) Calling me "stupid" has resulted in the opposite reaction.  Starting Jan. 15 the Cruz supporters started calling Trump supporters "stupid" on social media.  I was shocked that the #2 candidate's fans would turn inward with that level of intensity, and I was turned off.  I understand the desperation they feel with poll numbers only half of Trump's, but the right way to even the odds was to tell Trump supporters why Cruz is better.  They could easily have presented positives about their guy instead.  But they didn't.  The Buckley Principal is what I used to back Trump, but these attacks on Trump supporters have turned me into a Trumpeter. So keep calling me stupid.

 5) Sarah Palin addressed my fifth reason - the GOP Establishment - on January 19:
"What the heck would the establishment know about conservatism? Tell me, is this conservative? GOP majorities handing over a blank check to fund Obamacare and Planned Parenthood and illegal immigration that competes for your jobs, and turning safety nets into hammocks, and all these new Democrat voters that are going to be coming on over border as we keep the borders open, and bequeathing our children millions in new debt, and refusing to fight back for our solvency, and our sovereignty, even though that’s why we elected them and sent them as a majority to DC. No!

If they’re not willing to do that, then how are they to tell us that we’re not conservative enough in order to be able to make these changes in America that we know need to be…

Now they’re concerned about this ideological purity? Give me a break! Who are they to say that? Oh tell somebody like, Phyllis Schlafly, she is the Republican, conservative movement icon and hero and a Trump supporter. Tell her she’s not conservative. How ‘bout the rest of us? Right wingin’, bitter clingin’, proud clingers of our guns, our god, and our religions, and our Constitution. Tell us that we’re not red enough? Yeah, coming from the establishment. Right."

I am looking forward to a fun year.

a couple mild arguments
click to read

Sunday, January 31, 2016

Where Is Karl?

UPDATED 1.31.16:

I am in Des Moines today.  I've partnered with Comrade Matt Forney who has been in town for a week covering the Caucus events.

Matt and I, and roughly 2000 others, saw Trump today in the West part of the state - Counsel Bluffs.  He shared the stage with Jerry Falwell Jr. in a relaxed, seated conversation.

Trump distributed $100k to the veteran's organization, Partners for Patriots.

The topics were the same: Strong defense is key.  Cruz is losing steam  The others are "dropping like flies."  Hillary is easy to beat - but will she be around?

Then Trump brought out his wife (below), and later his daughter and her husband, and Falwell's family too.

Matt Forney is currently supporting Trump, but don't let that deter you from reading his work.  He (and I) were the most subdued at today's Trump rally. 

Comrade Matt has been attending these events for the past week, and has published quite a few articles about what he has seen.  Matt brings a refreshing, albeit sometimes harsh, eye to the candidates and their supporters.  He considers himself part of the "alt-right," the disenfranchised Republicans leading the anti-establishment movement today.  I've come to find his perspective spot-on.  Consider reading some of his work:
Jan 23 - Ben Carson and the Death of Right-Wing Tokenism

Jan 24 - Donald Trump, Marco Rubio, and the Soft Bigotry of Political Correctness

Jan 25 - The Rise and Fall of Hillary Clinton

Jan 26 - If You’re Feeling the Bern, There’s a Cream for That

Jan 27 - Carly Fiorina Wants to Sit on Your Caucus

Jan 27 - Donald Trump’s Presidential Campaign Is The Biggest Political Uprising In Decades

Jan 29 - The Rand Paul Devolution

Jan 29 - Ted Cruz’s Heart May Go on, but His Campaign Won’t

Jan 29 - Why Donald Trump’s Veterans’ Rally In Des Moines Was A Resounding Success

Jan 31 - How Jeb Bush Destroyed The Bush Dynasty And Tanked His Own Campaign

Jan 31 - The Luck of Governor O’Malley
You'll find more at Matt's Blog.

UPDATED 2.1.16 9:30am:

Comrade Matt posted a video of us discussing the Trump event in Counsel Bluffs.

Thursday, January 28, 2016

Bernie Pic of the Day

Our Comrades over at The People's Cube posted this photo with a link to a quiz: Who Said It?  Karl Marx or Bernie Sanders?


How Cruz Can Win the Nomination

I recently presented the idea of how Ted Cruz can win the GOP nomination.  I've done some math that further proves this. 

Theory:  Most GOP candidates are GOP-Establishment politicians.  Despite what many 'conservative' personalities are saying Cruz is hated more than Trump by the GOPe, I disagree.  The only proof will be when the fringe candidates drop out and throw their weight to one of the top two: Cruz and Trump.  I disagree Cruz is hated more than Trump, and I think most will throw their support, and their voters' support, to Cruz.

1) The poll numbers are reflected in the actual primary results.
2) Trump and Cruz will be the last two standing.
The big unknown: Which candidate will Carson (9%) ask his supporters to back?  

The math: I have calculated two scenarios. 
1) One that assumes 90% of a candidate's support will go to either Cruz or Trump with the other 10% going to the other. 
2) The second scenario assumes a 80-20% split.
As you can see, in either scenario, Cruz is within range of winning.  Carson's 9% is an unknown, as is the missing 13% of GOP support.

Another Factor - Timing.  If candidates hang on too long, Trump benefits as he collects more delegates with each completed primary.

So, Comrades, 
1) Who will Carson back?  
2) Do you agree with my other assumptions of how each other candidate will act?
This is a google spreadsheet that you may copy and modify to develop your own scenarios.  If you have something better, send it to me and I'll post it!