Thursday, February 11, 2016

Nice Timing

Jim Rickards has a new book coming out in a couple months.  I've already pre-ordered my copy. 



Jim has been the most solid financial and global economic analyst I've found in the past 3 years.  When China started its market collapse last summer, for example, I had read about it in one of Jim's other books a full year prior.  He has other predictions that have occurred, or are likely to occur.

Both of his other books are in the Ushanka Library at the left.

Gold has had quite a run since the new year, and today's $50+ jump was crazy.  MW:


I have some Precious Metals videos from 1-2 years ago that are still relevant:

Play the Ratio
Ratio Strategy #1
Ratio Strategy #1: w/ Trade Costs
Ratio Strategy #2
Updates (Jul14)
Updates (Oct 14)
Updates (Feb 15)
Analysis of Gold Bug advice (Mar15)

Wednesday, February 10, 2016

Trump Wins NH

(This is not a Trump gloat post.  It is an establishment slap-down post.)

Conclusions:
1) 60% of NH Democrats want my property,
2) 53% of NH Republicans are Republicans in name only,
3) DNCe, GOPe, and the old media are on the sidelines in this one. 
From Marshall Report:


Amazing!

Keep telling us the Tea Party is dead, media elites.

I used to have to wait for the general election to see tears on the MSM faces.  1984 and 2004 were two such election nights to remember. 


This year with Trump, and somewhat with Bernie, you are set to see some gloomy faces with nearly every primary.  I say "you," because I cancelled cable back in 2010.


Bernie says we are due for a "political revolution."  I think we're seeing it.  And on the bright side, assuming Trump wins, the only suffering necessary to [start to] turn this country around will be among 'journalists,' and political 'experts' and consultants. 

I can live with that.

Tuesday, February 09, 2016

His List of 134



Joseph McCarthy had a list of ~134 ranking government officials with ties to the Communist Party, an organization determined to bring down the United States.  He kept the list secret to protect them - innocent until proven guilty was the standard back then.  The Communists in America - led by the old media - overwhelmed his red-hunt.  Truman didn't help by ignoring McCarthy's warnings despite the FBI's acknowledgement that they too had many of those people on their list too.

The only criticism of McCarthy that had any basis in fact was that the number on his list changed.  He would remove people from the list when his investigators, with the help of the FBI, had found them innocent of the charge.  And he'd add new names as evidence warranted.  If only he had kept the number on the list secret and stuck with the core message that Communists had indeed infiltrated the highest offices in the United States government.  If only.

Want to take a guess for which party each person on McCarthy's list voted?


Today, McCarthy would still have a list of 134.  The 134 government officials who do NOT have Communist inspirations.  How times change.

McCarthy, unfortunately, has passed away.  The slander he suffered deters others from standing up to do the right thing.  The closest thing to a McCarthy list is Ushanka.us.

Recommended reading: Blacklisted by History.

The second image above, and the inspiration for this post, is from IOTW - the leaders in right-wing imagery.

Here is McCarthy in a 1-min interview segment:






UPDATED 2.10.16 5am:

Talk about lists!

Let's get the list of the 138,716 New Hampshire Primary voters who voted for the US presidential candidate who is closer on the ideological spectrum to Hitler and Stalin than any previous candidate in the history of the United States.  Even more so than Obama.

FoxNews:


Q: What is 1,048,576?

A: The maximum number of rows possible in a Microsoft Excel 2013 spreadsheet.

Conclusion: We either start making lists now, or soon the number of commies will outpace technology.

UPDATED 2.10.16 5:10am:

A FB Comrade who grew up in Vietnam shared this last night:
When I was a young boy, I never thought North Vietnam communists would ever take over the south. Today, I'm watching young Americans attempting to elect a communist.
Getting old has its pros and cons.  One pro is perspective.  Studing history (see the Ushanka Library along the left side) develops a keen sensitivity and perception on cycles.  Business cycles, like the dot-com bust, subprime and banking crashes, and the current equity bubble, are all seen from the 30,000 foot level now.

And political cycles are the same.  If nobody is around to warn of the horrors of Democratic Socialism, and few are willing to crack a book to learn, then an environment of envy and anger can provide the foundation for an era of soft tyranny that we see ourselves entering today.  It is laughable that the Dems are grasping for Biden and Bloomberg now.  That has a lot to do with the DNCe and a lot less to do with a revulsion to communism.


Another cycle to consider: war.  Nearly every generation gives it a try, yet in the total-war sense, it has been a few generations now.

UPDATED 2.10.16 11:30am:

From Gateway Pundit:   They Don’t Even Hide It Anymore=> Demokrats Go Full Socialist With Glorious Leader Bernie Sanders
. . . the Democratic Party has been taken over by far left progressives who are finally comfortable identifying as socialists.
There is that symbol again. . .


Hulu For the Win

Hulu sent their dog to the DNC debate to get answers:




U/T: BFH @ IOTW

UPDATED 2.10.16: 

Here is another episode - star wars.

Here he is with NH college students.

Look Who Is King of the Ash Heap

Bernie and Hillary, and their core ideology:


U/T: Comrade Branco

Sunday, February 07, 2016

The Trump Phenomenon among Conservatives UPDATED and BUMPED

As some of the Cruz supporters continue to scream "he's not a conservative" and "you're really f**king stupid" to the poor Trump supporters, it is refreshing to see that these attacks have not moved the polls as intended.

Rush Limbaugh has the best analysis of why Trump is leading.  Do not listen if you are not tolerant of views other than your own...  Redistributed from Doug's site.



The attacks these past two weeks remind me of the Ron Paul(bots) of previous elections, and I wonder if they are the majority of the vocal name-callers and are giving the Cruz supporters a bad name.  The Paul-bots, if you don't remember, would swarm anyone online, or any poll online.  No intellectual discussions, just swarm and overwhelm any discussion that either ignored Ron Paul or put him in a bad light.  I'm seeing the same behavior with the Cruz supporters now, and while I know it is just a few, it is getting old real fast.  If you are a Cruz supporter, by all means engage.  But tell everyone something positive about Ted Cruz.  Persuade.  Don't insult.  You can use the format of my Trump post as an outline.

I'm keeping a mental tally of those people who are against Trump (which seems to mean pro-Cruz).  In several weeks either they will be celebrating as Cruz takes the nomination, or they will be bitter  for the next 10 months, ready to gloat if the GOP nominee fails to win the general election. Perhaps they will also be quick with the "I told you so" when (not if) President Trump does something less-than-conservative.

Here are some of the anti-Trump types:

Rush Limbaugh.  Despite his excellent analysis above and over the past two weeks, it is my guess that Rush is in the bag for Cruz for this reason alone:  Rush says the GOPe hates Cruz more than they hate Trump.  And he never explains why.  I think this is a way to push voters to Cruz without coming out and saying why.  Rush knows this is an anti-establishment election, on both sides, and his saying this with ZERO supporting evidence, tells me he's for Cruz, but not so much he's willing to lose some of his audience.

Mark Levin.

Glenn Beck.


MoonBattery.

National Review Online.

Rick Perry.

Trevor Loudon.

John Hawkins (RightWingNews).  Here are some of John's tweets between Jan 20-24.  I think these were meant to deceive, distract and  manipulate.  None of his comments were sourced, for example.  I also think they are unbecoming of a leader in the new-media.  I've told him this in my FB replies.
I am not much of a magazine guy, but I did just sign up for a year of National Review Digital as a thank you for their anti-Trump edition

Do you really think a guy who tried to use eminent domain to take a widow's home for a LIMO PARKING LOT is really for the little guy? #‎Trump

If Trump's the nominee, Republicans will have to root for Obamacare to stay in place, because his single payer system is even worse.

I disagree with Donald Trump's pro-amnesty stance....

George Bush had better favorable/unfavorable numbers when he left office than Trump does right now.

Just for the record, if Ted Cruz shoots someone, I will no longer support his candidacy...unless it's an establishment guy in a duel #‎cool

People who slime Trump supporters or refer to Trump as a fascist/Hitler deserve to be ignored, disrespected and tuned out by conservatives.

What makes anyone think a flip-flopping moderate like Trump would make deals they'd like better than a country club Republican like Boehner?

Wow, Bloomberg might run? He's a moderate billionaire, can't be bought, speaks his mind & has "New York Values." It's like they're twins!

Donald Trump is so much of a squish that he makes Lindsey Graham look like Rush Limbaugh.

Why don't we draft Warren Buffet as the GOP nominee? He's not conservative, but neither is Trump. He's also richer & less erratic. #‎improve?

If someone tells you that at least Trump keeps his word, it's a sign they don't know that much about him.

Trump never loses! Except for the 4 bankruptcies. And Trump steaks. Trump Vodka. Trump university. The USFL. Trump airlines, etc, etc, etc

If Trump is our nominee, it's an auto-win for the Dems. Obamacare's permanent. Prolly 4 Supreme Court Justices. Executive orders all stand.

I don't ever link or push anything that refers to Trump as a "Hitler" or that trashes his supporters. That's obnoxious.

Shorter Trump: Elect me and I'll be another John Boehner! Wait, what?

You can't stop Trump, but you can contain him. Savage him enough & then he won't have enough support to win when the primary field shrinks.

The RNC was right to pull National Review's debate invite for bombing on Trump. It was still worth it for them to do it.

Trump has never voted in a Republican primary, said W. is the worst POTUS in history & was supporting Democrats & amnesty just 3 years ago.

Why should we be nervous about how a celebrity like Trump would govern? Look how well it worked out with Schwarzenegger & Ventura? Wait...

I'm going to be do everything I can to stop Trump from getting nominated. If he wins, I'll do what I can to help, but it will be hopeless.

Was doing some research & discovered that both Jimmy Carter & Walter Mondale had better favorability ratings than Trump. #‎encouragingnot

Trump ahead in state polls? Important! Polls showing Trump's favorable rating is only 5 points higher than Todd Akin's? #‎lookoverthere

Even though I don't think Trump is the right guy to be the nominee, I'd never question someone's conservative bona fides for supporting him

Why are the polls showing Trump ahead relevant, when the polls showing his 33% favorability rating are treated like they don't matter?
John endorsed Cruz on the 30th.

I offered to partner with John on a comparison between Cruz and Trump on immigration.  You can see his decline here.


The spreadsheet goes unfinished.


Any ideas why he avoided this 5-min chore to help communicate the candidates' position on immigration?

I predicted two weeks ago that Cruz will get the nomination.  The math adds up.  Or, it did.  I now see the possibility of Cruz losing ground and giving the #2 position to Rubio. Here is why:


What I can't predict is how the conservative movement will work together after the childish and rude attacks from the Cruz supporters.  I just hope the Trump supporters continue to ignore the cheap shots.

UPDATED and BUMPED 2.7.16 10:30pm:

Comrade John Hawkins does not tolerate insubordination!


The "Rubio Was Right" post I linked to.  The 2nd link was to this post.

Inspired by John, for John:


Trump - Eminent Domain

Eminent Domain definition:
noun, Law.
1. the power of the state to take private property for public use with payment of compensation to the owner.
Kudos to Trump last night to explain to everyone what Eminent Domain is.  Which is different than what Bush and other RINOs think it is.




There is a difference between private and public eminent domain, and Trump's example of the Keystone Pipeline exposed the massive gray area between the two.  I agree with the criticisms of Trump that he leans too far on the private eminent domain side of the equation, but look at who he is.  He is the ONLY person on that stage who has CREATED value.  Everybody benefits from wealth creation - even the EBT crowd.  There wouldn't be Obamaphones if there weren't people like Trump who create wealth out of thin air.

For the Trump haters - when was the last time the federal government used Eminent Domain, and in hindsight, was it used properly?  Comments are open.  I'll even give you a couple of hints. . .



I found several copies of the video above on YouTube, and those posted by MSM outlets cut out the Trump explanation of Eminent Domain at the beginning.  I wonder why.

Watch again.  Bush is on the right...


I think Trump handled this question ambush perfectly.  Great on defense, great on clarity, great on taking Bush, the moderator and the entire audience to task.  When you're right, you're right.

I feel so proud of myself for announcing my support for Trump last week.  Mr. Trump, you're my candidate in this primary until you're dead, or until I find someone better.


Full disclosure - I did not like the Kelo decision which allowed eminent domain for private (for profit) use.  The Kelo situation that led to the court case was abusive, and the decision made it possible for future abuse nationwide.  I've been against private eminent domain ever since - well . . . until Trump's Keystone Pipeline question.

Now?  I think it comes down to trust.  Do you trust your local, state and federal governments with that power?  At the federal level, I trust any GOP candidate more than Hillary or Bernie.

UPDATED 2.8.16 4:30pm:

Meet the former Navy SEAL, Jesse Hardy, whose land Gov. Jeb Bush tried to take with Eminent Domain in 2005.

Huh.

U/T: Ann Coulter via Twitter.

UPDATED 2.9.16 1:30pm:

Conservative Treehouse has more!
During his tenure as Florida Governor Bush initiated the largest eminent domain private property confiscation in the history of the Sunshine State.

Book Review: A Noble Treason

Book Review: A Noble Treason, by Richard Hanser, 1979, 310 pages.
Brother and Sister Hans and Sophie Scholl were raised as independent thinkers by their Father Robert.  That childhood produced leaders who stood for principle without thinking about it.  The problem, they were growing up in Germany as Hitler was consolidating power and moving to war.  

A Noble Treason is a story of The White Rose movement, a small group of students and like-minded Germans who produced and distributed anti-Nazi leaflets in Munich and surrounding cities.  Their work was the first subversive activity from within Germany and it was motivated by the expansionist war.
The White Rose leaflets – only 6 total – started when Hitler was enjoying massive war gains.  The first leaflets were just a voice of disagreement and worry that the war gains could turn to losses and result in massive suffering at home.  There was no call to action, just the assumption that like-minded readers would share the subversive leaflets with others.  
But then Stalingrad.  And Allied bombings inside Germany.  And setback after setback.  A government spinning the truth, and having a harder time keeping the truth from citizens as soldiers rotated from the front with accurate news.  Then, the White Rose Movement - just a few activists with a few leaflets – were considered more a threat to Hitler and his government than Generals Zhukov and Eisenhower.

Hans started White Rose, and his sister, Sophie, soon joined.  Other students and a like-minded professor too joined and participated in supporting roles that included obtaining and operating duplication machines, printing supplies and equipment, and distribution.  All knew they were risking their lives.  And those risks were realized when Hans and Sophie were caught distributing leaflet #6 at their college campus.
A Noble Treason is about freedom.  It is an inspiring, yet sad story of about two dozen activists, seven of who stay silent through hours of Gestapo interrogation and walk tall to their executions.  As a blogger, I found the story an inspiration, and I’d recommend it to anyone who would like to know how a few can put fear into a tyrant.

I have added this book to the Ushanka Library book list at the left.

You can see selected quotes from A Noble Treason in my Book Notes.

Rubio Was Right

Rubio was right.  And Christie was insecure, juvenile and wrong.

The 'big' news from last night's GOP debate is Christie's supposed success at attacking Rubio because he repeats himself.  Stop reading here if you don't want to know the truth.  If you continue, however, you can't complain that you were not told. . .


Ok Comrades - here is the truth. 

Christie is deflecting from the core Rubio message that Christie and Obama are more alike than they are different. 

And more truth:  FoxNews' airing of this segment is their attempt to deflect from what Rubio is saying and instead draw attention to the fact he repeats himself.   "Gotcha Journalism" is an old-media tactic to boost ad revenue and give the non-thinking viewers a short burst of false 'I'm so smart' self-flattery. 

Watch:



More truth: A top reason I'm not in politics (and probably you too) is the BS of having to repeat several simple messages a million times to a million different people.  One does not have to do that in the private sector.  Christie repeats himself just as often as Rubio and the others.  If he didn't, he would have already dropped out of the race.

Rubio repeated something that needs to be said by all - repeated by all:
What Obama has done is by design. 
In my opinion, this is the single, most powerful message that will capture the most non-Republican voters for the RNC this year. 

Many Obama voters are conflicted - they liked the "Hope and Change" message but, seven years later, are out of work or working two part-time jobs.  They are paying more for the healthcare that they inferred would be free.  Or they have lost their insurance that they were told they could keep.  They are being watched by their government.  They see some crimes go unpunished yet are told we live in a nation of laws.  They see more racial tension and violence now than they've ever seen.  They see their careers stalling and their retirement savings slipping away.  And recent gun sales show their fear is real, whether it is of ISIS, the cartels, #BlackLivesMatters or open borders.

This. Is. By. Design.

The only thing Christie said in the exchange above that has any substance is when he explains the difference between someone with executive experience and one with only legislative experience.  This is an important point that Trump, Bush, Kasich, Christie and Fiorina should include in every sentence.  It will be the key difference between a president who acts, and one who talks.  Anyone can have an idea or cast a vote within a body of 100, but only a few among us can execute.


Christie made his mark by lecturing people on video.  He is good at it, and it is great when he's barking at teacher-union thugs in New Jersey.  It is another thing - juvenile comes to mind - when he is barking at fellow Republicans who are telling the truth about Obama and his like-minded sycophant RINOs in the Republican Party.


/End of Rant

Obama Education

Below is an undated HomeSnacks map that shows the education equivalent, by state.

Which country is your local public school closest to?


I'm not sure this map tells us what it was intended to.  Trump says we're #22 in the world (this HomeSnacks says #28) now for education.  That means some of the states may be above average if they are matched to a country in the #1-21 (or #1-27) range.

Another missing data point: What political party has been in control of the nation's public schools for the past 3+ generations?

FYI - Trump is the only candidate who has vowed to break the national control of the public schools are restore local control.  If only he were a conservative...