Tuesday, December 27, 2011

The Economy - 2012 Predictions

Karl Denninger at Market-Ticker posts his 2012 predictions, as well as a review of his 2011 predictions.

For the most part, he's been successful in his predictions.

The 2012 predictions that stood out to us were:

  • The double-dip recession will hit us between Q2 and Q4.
  • One or more countries will leave the Euro.
  • A third party candidate will emerge and get >10% of the vote.
  • MF Global still threatens commodity markets.
  • MF Global: "we will see actual handcuffs."
  • Strong/Stable dollar.
  • Continued weak housing.
  • Interest rates will rise.
  • Some state and local level public pensions will not be paid.

We like this discussion about earned money - wealth - and promised money - credit:

But notice what's going on under the surface: Capital and credit aren't the same thing. One is wealth, the other is a promise to labor tomorrow. In other words one is the product of free men and women, the other is a demand that others submit to slavery -- a promise that others will pay taxes in the future!

 If you're wondering where our jobs went, that's how it happened. The actual capital flowed out of the country and was replaced by credit which spends the same but isn't the same at all. What disappeared was wealth and freedom, and what replaced it was bondage, unemployment and McJobs. If you're wondering why despite Congress saying they don't want to see all of our jobs go to China and Mexico it keeps happening, it is happening precisely because Congress will not stop spending more than they tax!

 In other words it is Congress that has drained the capital of our nation through their policies. They have serially lied to us for thirty years in this regard with those lies really picking up steam in the last decade. The so-called "Tea Party" along with the Democrats and "mainstream" Republicans are all liars in this regard -- every one of them is complicit, as any of these groups could have shut this down at any time. 

[wrong. tea party has no votes in congress, thus is not complicit.  and republicans who were elected in 2010 who ran as tea-party candidates do not have the votes needed for this kind of change.]

Had the Congress refused to raise the debt ceiling in August it would have immediately forced a balanced budget -- without the need for a Constitutional Amendment.

 Remember too that the House and Senate both have permitted "Continuing Resolutions" to run the government now for two years. This was agreed to by both Houses, ergo, it's both of their fault and those claiming otherwise are liars.

 This same dynamic has played out over in Europe. Greece, Spain, Portugal, Italy and others have all made promises they can't keep with their current tax revenues. The same dynamic has led to the same outcome -- they're just a bit ahead of us on the road to perdition.

1 comment:

rjp said...

I don't think we will see interest rates rise yet. It's going to be a while in my opinion, 2014 maybe, probaby 2015.

MF Global was huge, had a much bigger impact on commodity markets than most people knew. I think the blow-out may have destroyed those markets for some time as the people who should have been protected are the one's paying for it - the farmers that need to hedge 1000 acres of corn (that would be a 50 contract trade).