Tuesday, May 26, 2009

NK Nuke Test - Our $0.02

Good for North Korea.

They have been part of the nuclear club since the Clinton years. It is their right to test their arsenal and make improvements. If only leaders in the US (both parties) shared the same values of testing the nation's ultimate deterrent.

Further, we are lucky that Obama is president as North Korea is ratcheting-up the rhetoric along with missile and nuke tests. His administration's combined incompetence and impotence in foreign affairs creates the unintended, yet ideal, environment for a North Korean collapse. Obama will not do a thing. Not by choice, but because he committed to a lower priority for N. Korea long before he took office. He must have at least one smart advisor who has made the case that nearly any effort applied to N. Korea is wasted. The only options that would work are not possible when a Democrat is in the White House.

We'll now watch the UN write another letter strenuously opposed at the nuke test, and Obama explain how he is 'deeply troubled' at the recent events. Then, if we're lucky, that will be it. Why? Reason #3.

Gordon G. Chang writes in the WSJ today, North Korea Advertises Its Nukes. He reviews the four accepted motivations for the nuke and missile tests, plus adds a new, very serious, fifth reason. We add our assessments:

1) International recognition as a nuclear state. Success.
2) Destabilize the S. Korean government. Fail. The test bolsters the South's new hardline opinions.
3) Get more foreign aid. Pending. Will Obama rush to the table and offer more aid? We suspect not.
4) Improve image among starving population. Unknown. We think they'd prefer freedom to nuke tests, but we're biased.
5) Advertise N. Korea arms to Iran, Syria, etc. Success.

We'll add three more:

6) Show fellow thug-nation-states that the International community is all talk. Success, again.
7) Show fellow thug-nation-states that N. Korea is their de-facto leader. Success.
8) Re-establish Kim's position as the leader of N. Korea. Unknown.

It has been rumored that there is a power struggle within Kim's regime. His recent stroke is one aspect, as are the roles of his two sons in the succession plans. This dissension isn't among factions that include pro-west efforts, but are instead thug-power-plays to determine who runs the concentration camps after Kim's death.

These tests show the desperation at the top levels of the North Korean regime. The US's new lack of interest led to these tests, will lead to more desperate rhetoric and actions in the near future, and will hasten the demise of the communist prison-nation.

The only important question: Will a North Korean collapse include a mushroom cloud over Seoul?

No comments: